Taos Local Politics: The Horse Race
On Tuesday, May 20, I voted and my ballot was marked no. 293 among early voters. Early voting has been open for two weeks and there are two weeks to go before the June 3 primary. Since the Town of Taos election in early March, in which issues and personalities came together in a perfect storm, the wind has gone out of the balloon in the political community. The statewide election for governor, despite the presence of five democratic candidates, King, Lopez, Morales, Rael, and Webber, also lacks excitement.
“Apathy” works against popular or qualified candidates since a vigorous challenger can gain the upper hand by generating passion, the old-fashioned way, among family and friends. The following commentary should not be seen as an endorsement or personal bias, just a guess at the way the “horse race” is shaping up.
Taos Friction predicts an historic low voter turn out in the June primary. The weather has mesmerized citizens and the lack of viable statewide democratic candidates has contributed to a laissez-faire attitude. Plus good government at Taos County, ironically, doesn’t focus voters’ attention: no controversy.
I suspect we shall see voter turnout more reminiscent of a school board race than previous primary races. Here is the breakdown of registered voters in Taos County.
Democrats: 17,161
Declined to state: 3,742
Republicans: 3,262
Independent: 938
Even if early voter numbers should more than double from 300 to 600 or to a 1000 and then triple on Election Day, that’s only 4000 or so voters, say 25% of those eligible. So the winners will be those who can “Get out the vote” (GOTV).
The only incumbent on the ballot being challenged is Judge Ernie Ortega. And the challenger, the nearly anonymous Robert Fitzgerald, hasn’t gained much traction. Ernie, much to the consternation of Fitzgerald, will win in a walk.
In the County Commission race, I see Candyce O’Donnell (District 5), Jim Fambro (District 1), and Mark Gallegos of Questa (District 2) with a slight edge. District 2 is peculiar because the district includes Precinct 16 in the Town of Taos, TSV, Taos Pueblo, and San Cristobal north to the Colorado border. Young Darien Fernandez might get enough votes to make it interesting. Hard to say.
The real race in District 2 will occur in November when the democratic winner faces republican Virgil Martinez, the man from Cerro, who has long opposed and historically beaten back both the battling politicos of Questa and garnered support from TSV republicans, while winning with cross-over democratic support.
The Taos County Assessor’s race is a real unknown. Candidate Bobbi Deherrera is being supported by incumbent Assessor Darlene Vigil but numerous county employees and native Taosenos are supporting longtime assessor employee, Abel Montoya. Former Commissioner Andrew Chavez will get a few votes out of Llano Quemado and Ranchos de Taos but Andrew’s negatives, due to his record as a county commissioner, are so high, he seems more like a “spoiler.” Tammy Jaramillo, who the Questa faction supports, could benefit from vote splitting in greater Taos.
The loss of the controversial agricultural exemption, due as much to drought as a loss of interest in local farming and livestock activity, will work against the incumbent’s chosen successor. The real culprit in the ag exemption controversy, in addition to weather and the change in economics from agriculture to real estate, is an activist Governor, who has gained power due to a passive legislature and ordered Tax and Rev to come down hard on El Norte.
The Taos County Probate judge race, Pamela Romo v. Maxine Valerio Montoya, is a toss-up. Whereas Romo is a young attorney from Lower Las Colonias and has the support of the El Prado/ Jose Lauriano Silva extended families, Montoya from Ranchos, benefits from the Valerio (Chemo) and Montoya (J.C.) clans.
As for the sheriff’s race, it seems Jerry Holgrefe has the edge, given his combination of vast Anglo support along with some Hispanic crossover. Multiple local families and neighborhoods are supporting various favorite sons. But given the judges’ races of two years ago, when vote splitting, contributed to the election of local newcomers, it looks as if Judge Betty is running second and Celedon Gallegos, third. On the other hand, if Judge Betty’s historic popularity among voters is still as broad and deep as her family, then this will be a very close race. The novelty of her gender should help Judge Betty.
In a sense this is an old-fashioned Taos County primary, where Hispanic families and neighbors support their relatives. But, given the apathy, Anglo newcomers should make the difference in terms of swing voters. Let’s say there’s a 30% turnout among democrats countywide, which I think is high, and 5000 citizens vote in the sheriffs’ race. If Celedon and his competitors split 2000 votes, then Jerry or Betty would need about 1500 votes or 30% of the 30% to win, mas y menos.
Despite a blister on his throat, California Chrome could still win the Belmont and the Triple Crown. But the odds are against him. On the other hand, I’ m thinking Lawrence Rael will win the democratic primary in the Governor’s race. But that’s just me.